Beirut: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime collapsed following a rapid rebel offensive that swept through major cities and ended with the capture of Damascus. Analysts attribute Assad's downfall to a combination of regime fragility, reduced international support, and the strategic consolidation of rebel forces.

Key Factors Behind Assad's Fall:
1. A Hollowed-Out Army
Years of war depleted Assad's military through casualties, defections, and draft evasion. Experts estimate the army lost around half its pre-war strength of 300,000. Soldiers faced low morale, underpayment, and resource scarcity, leading to widespread evasion of conscription.
Rebels capitalized on these weaknesses, as Syrian forces reportedly abandoned positions with little resistance during the November 27 offensive.

2. Loss of Allied Support
Russia and Iran, Assad’s primary backers, were unable to provide the same level of support.

Russia: Focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia’s reduced airstrike campaigns failed to repel the rebel advance.
Iran: Preoccupied with conflicts involving Israel and Hezbollah, Iran's influence waned. Analysts note that both allies may have deemed Assad dispensable to their regional strategies.

3. Hezbollah’s Waning Role
Hezbollah, a critical ally for Assad since 2013, shifted resources to confront Israel during escalated hostilities in Lebanon. The group's depleted manpower and leadership, including the death of chief Hassan Nasrallah, further weakened its capacity to support Assad.

Strategic Rebel Gains
Islamist rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani centralized the rebellion, building institutions and uniting disparate factions. This coordination allowed rebels to mount an unprecedentedly effective offensive.

The International Perspective
Israel claimed credit for indirectly contributing to Assad's overthrow, citing its successful strikes against Iran and Hezbollah. Analysts suggest that diminishing regional and international support for Assad accelerated his fall, leaving the regime vulnerable to the unified rebel assault.

The sudden collapse of Assad's government marks a turning point in Syria's tumultuous history, with significant implications for the region and the international community.