Beijing: China is moving forward with plans to construct the world’s largest hydropower project, a massive 60 GW dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, near the international border with India’s Arunachal Pradesh. Known in India as the Brahmaputra, the river is a vital water source for millions of people across the region. Dubbed the “mother of all dams,” the project has raised alarms in India, as it could significantly affect downstream water flow, potentially threatening water security and triggering artificial floods in both India and Bangladesh.

The dam, located in Metou County on the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo, is set to overshadow a series of smaller dams that China has already constructed along the river. Satellite imagery shows that work on access roads and infrastructure for the project has already begun. This development has spurred India to plan its own dam on the Siang River, a major tributary of the Brahmaputra, as a countermeasure to China’s growing "water hegemony."

India’s proposed 11,000 MW dam on the Siang River aims to store over 9 billion cubic meters of water during peak monsoon seasons, ensuring a water reserve should China reduce flow downstream. It would also serve as a flood prevention measure for the northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, which are vulnerable to water releases from upstream Chinese dams. Past experiences, such as the 2017 incident when the Siang River turned black and unfit for consumption—an event Indian officials blamed on China—have heightened India's concerns.

China’s Strategic Water Control
The Yarlung Tsangpo is one of the world’s largest river systems, originating in eastern Tibet and flowing into India as the Brahmaputra before reaching Bangladesh. India's lower riparian position makes it highly dependent on the river's flow for agriculture, water security, and livelihood. China’s dam-building activities, particularly the construction of the massive Metou dam, position Beijing as a water "hegemon" in South and Southeast Asia. By controlling water levels, China could potentially manipulate water flows for geopolitical purposes, including irrigation, power generation, or even creating artificial droughts or floods downstream.

China has a history of using water as a geopolitical tool. In 2021, Beijing reduced the water flow of the Mekong River by 50% without warning, severely impacting millions in Southeast Asia, particularly in countries like Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. China’s actions also contributed to prolonged droughts in the region, leading to economic losses, crop failures, and reduced fish populations. For example, Cambodia’s Tonle Sap Lake saw a 50% decline in fishing due to water shortages.

India’s Response and Regional Implications
In response to China's aggressive water management, India has accelerated its plans to build the Siang dam. The Indian government views the project as essential to safeguarding its water rights and mitigating potential "upstream mischief" from Beijing. This move also signals India's intent to assert control over its river resources amid China's growing influence over transnational water bodies.

China’s planned 60 GW dam, while publicly touted as a means to improve life in Tibet and address water scarcity, is widely seen as part of Beijing’s broader geopolitical strategy. The project aligns with China’s long-term goals of carbon neutrality by 2060, but critics argue that it serves a dual purpose: increasing China’s leverage over regional water resources and advancing its influence in South Asia.

This dam construction comes at a time when India has called for modifications to the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, raising speculation that China is signaling its support for Pakistan in its water-related disputes with India. China has previously demonstrated its willingness to use water as a diplomatic weapon, as seen after the 2017 Doklam standoff when it stopped sharing hydrological data with India for the Brahmaputra River, while continuing to provide data to Bangladesh.

China’s hydropower ambitions in Tibet, coupled with its history of manipulating water resources, present a growing challenge for regional stability. With transboundary rivers playing a critical role in South Asia’s agricultural and economic systems, China's control over these waterways poses a serious threat to the water security of downstream countries, especially India and Bangladesh.

Conclusion
As China pushes forward with its colossal dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo, concerns about water security and regional stability are mounting. The project underscores Beijing’s strategic use of water resources as a tool for influence and control in South Asia. In response, India is taking steps to protect its water rights by advancing its own dam projects, a move that could mitigate some of the risks posed by China’s water hegemony. However, the region remains vulnerable to the far-reaching impacts of China’s growing dominance over shared water resources.