Beijing: China is witnessing a steep decline in marriage rates, a trend that experts warn could have significant impacts on the country’s birth rates, aging population, and economic future. Millions fewer couples are choosing to marry compared to previous decades, a shift largely driven by economic pressures, changing social values, and evolving government policies.

According to China's Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriages has decreased dramatically in the past ten years. In 2013, nearly 13 million marriages were recorded; by 2023, that figure had fallen to fewer than 7 million per year. The potential consequences of this trend are wide-ranging, affecting everything from birth rates to economic stability and traditional family structures.

Factors Behind the Decline in Marriages
Several key factors contribute to the decline in marriage rates:

Economic Pressures and Housing Costs: Rapid urbanization has driven up the cost of living in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, making homeownership a significant financial hurdle for young people. For many, the high cost of housing and living expenses discourages marriage and family formation.

Education and Career Priorities: With increasing access to higher education, young Chinese—especially women—are prioritizing their careers over marriage. The time and effort required to pursue career success often conflict with traditional family values, leading many to delay or forgo marriage altogether.

Changing Social Attitudes: Younger generations are rethinking the role of marriage, with many viewing it as optional or even unnecessary. This shift aligns with a global trend that places individual freedom and personal fulfillment above social expectations.

Women’s Empowerment: Financial independence has given women more freedom in partner selection, with some choosing singlehood over settling in an unsatisfactory marriage. The reduction of social stigma around remaining unmarried has contributed to this shift.

Marriage Costs and Cultural Expectations: Weddings in China often involve high financial expectations, such as dowries and elaborate ceremonies, which can be financially overwhelming. For some couples, these cultural obligations are a deterrent to marriage.

Declining Marriage Rates and the Birth Rate Crisis
China’s marriage rate decline is closely linked to its falling birth rates. Marriage remains a key factor in family planning, as births outside of marriage are rare in Chinese society. As fewer people marry, fewer children are born, exacerbating China’s already low fertility rate of 1.2 births per woman—far below the replacement rate of 2.1 required for a stable population.

In recent years, China has attempted to counteract declining birth rates by shifting from a one-child policy to a two-child policy in 2016, and then to a three-child policy in 2021. However, these measures have not resulted in a significant rise in births. The sharp drop in marriage rates threatens to accelerate this trend, raising fears of a “demographic time bomb” in which a shrinking workforce must support a rapidly growing elderly population. Projections suggest that by 2035, people over 60 will make up nearly a third of China’s population.

Socioeconomic Implications of Declining Birth and Marriage Rates
The implications of China’s demographic changes extend beyond birth rates:

Economic Growth and Workforce Decline: A declining birth rate will eventually lead to a shrinking workforce, potentially slowing down economic growth and innovation. Fewer young workers could place greater pressure on productivity, reducing China’s competitive edge and increasing dependency on the working-age population to support the elderly.

Impact on the Housing Market: Traditionally, young couples drive demand for housing in China. With fewer marriages, demand for housing may soften, affecting property values and investments in the real estate sector—a critical component of China’s economy.

Strain on Social Welfare Systems: An aging population, combined with a smaller workforce, could strain China’s social welfare systems, including healthcare and pensions. The government may need to allocate more resources to elder care, potentially limiting funds for other vital areas like education, infrastructure, and technological development.

Mental Health and Loneliness: The rise of singlehood has raised concerns about loneliness and mental health, particularly among younger generations. As traditional family support networks weaken, China could face a future mental health crisis linked to social isolation, especially as individuals age.

Government Response and Future Outlook
Chinese authorities have acknowledged the urgency of reversing declining marriage and birth rates, though their attempts to incentivize marriage and childbearing have met limited success. While financial support schemes have been introduced, these measures are unlikely to fully address the broader economic, cultural, and social factors reshaping attitudes toward marriage and family.

If left unaddressed, China’s declining marriage and birth rates could transform the nation’s economic, social, and demographic landscapes, impacting everything from its labor force to its global economic role. These demographic shifts mark a profound change in societal norms, signaling potential long-term challenges to the stability and structure of Chinese society.