Kathmandu: Meteorologists have warned that this year's monsoon is likely to remain drier than normal for extended periods, but intermittent episodes of intense rainfall could significantly increase the risk of flash floods, landslides, and glacier-related disasters across the Himalayan region.

The warning follows recent destructive cloudburst floods in Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan and Arunachal Pradesh in India, prompting experts to issue a special alert for communities across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region.

Below-Normal Rainfall Does Not Mean Lower Disaster Risk
According to the Monsoon Forecast 2026, most parts of the HKH region are expected to receive below-average seasonal rainfall.

However, Saswata Sanyal, a disaster risk reduction expert at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), cautioned that reduced rainfall should not be interpreted as reduced disaster risk.

He explained that the influence of El Niño could result in prolonged dry spells followed by sudden episodes of heavy rain, creating ideal conditions for devastating flash floods and landslides. Such uneven rainfall patterns could also place additional pressure on agriculture and water resources.

Rising Temperatures Increasing Glacier Risks
Experts have also expressed concern over rising temperatures across the Himalayan region.

Higher-than-normal temperatures are accelerating the melting of glaciers and snow in the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra river basins, increasing river flows while destabilising mountain slopes and glacial lakes.

Hydrologist Manish Shrestha said the recent flooding in Pakistan's Thore Valley demonstrates how multiple hazards can combine into a single disaster.

"Heavy rainfall, rapid glacier melt, unstable slopes and fast-flowing rivers can create a chain reaction of disasters. These risks must be assessed together rather than individually," he said.

Call for Integrated Disaster Preparedness
Climate experts have urged governments across the region to adopt integrated disaster management strategies that simultaneously address drought, heatwaves, flash floods, landslides, and glacier-related hazards instead of treating them as separate issues.

They identified Nepal, northern and northeastern India, Pakistan's river basins, steep mountain slopes, and rapidly expanding urban areas as particularly vulnerable.

Early Warning Systems Need Strengthening
According to experts, one of the greatest dangers this year is assuming that below-average rainfall automatically means lower disaster risk.

Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Head of Water and Disaster Risk Reduction at ICIMOD, stressed the importance of combining traditional knowledge of Himalayan communities with modern scientific forecasting.

With the monsoon season approaching, experts have called for stronger cross-border early warning systems, improved information sharing, and closer regional cooperation to better manage disasters that affect river basins and communities across national boundaries.