Paris: Donald Trump’s prospective second term as U.S. president has sparked concerns among global economic experts, who warn that his protectionist policies could revive trade wars, drive inflation higher, and slow global growth. Trump’s proposed tariffs — including a 60% import tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% tariff on other imports — could hit the U.S., China, and Europe hard, potentially costing the U.S. economy $749 billion, China $827 billion, and Europe $533 billion by 2029, according to a study by consulting firm Roland Berger.

These tariffs may also impact inflation, which had been cooling due to recent interest-rate hikes. Analysts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimate that China’s inflation rate could rise by two to four percentage points if these policies are enacted. In the U.S., if Trump pursues mass deportations affecting millions of undocumented workers, the resulting labor shortages could push inflation even higher. With inflationary pressure mounting, central banks may be forced to pause rate cuts, stifling both consumer spending and corporate investment.

Experts also express concern about diminished global cooperation, essential for stabilizing international markets. According to Tara Varma of the Brookings Institution, Trump’s unilateral policies could erode multilateral efforts that have long supported global trade, leading to strained ties with key allies.

The impact on Asia, which accounts for 60% of global growth, could be especially severe if the U.S.-China trade war reignites. The International Monetary Fund has already warned that a revived trade conflict could stall Asia’s economic recovery. Analysts at the Peterson Institute predict that Trump’s policies could also reduce U.S. GDP by as much as two percentage points annually from 2027 to 2031.

If implemented, Trump’s policies could have sweeping implications for the global economy, hindering growth, stoking inflation, and creating turbulence in international trade relationships.